Our brain has evolved to make predictions and explanations in unstable and ill-defined situations. For instance, to understand a novel situation, the brain generates a single explanation on the fly. If this explanation is upturned by additional information, a second explanation is generated. This story is from the WIRED World in 2023, our annual trends briefing. Read more stories from the series here--or download or order a copy of the magazine.

"It's always easier to do business if you already know what's going to happen." This playful phrase recently became an inspiration for the consumer health marketing team at the global life science company Bayer in the creation of a forecasting model to, in essence, try to predict the future. Specifically, the team wanted to predict cold and flu search trends around the world to help reach people with the right products to alleviate their symptoms. Eric Gregoire, SVP and global head of digital and media at Bayer, said the project started in Australia ahead of the nation's cold and flu season this year. And the prediction model was so successful in improving digital marketing performance that the team intends to exapand the project globally.

In light of the rising death toll from the coronavirus, which this week spread to the U.S. and was declared a health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO), it's worth looking at AI's role in curbing the spread of other diseases. Algorithms have not only informed superior intervention and prevention strategies, they've helped optimize the allocation of resources to fight the spread of infection. Algorithms have even detected preliminary signs of an outbreak well before it came to human pathologists' attention. In a study back in 2014, investigators used statistical modeling to evaluate the testing and treatment of HIV in the U.K. and locate people living with the virus who weren't aware of their disease status. The team found that -- even without behavioral changes on the part of people living with HIV -- their approach could reduce new infections by 5%.